Opinion | Nitish Kumar: The ‘X’ Factor in Bihar — And the NDA Knows It
As the election dates for Bihar approach, the state is once again caught in the grip of election fever. In political circles, one question is dominating discussions from teashops to television debates: Is Nitish Kumar still the “X-factor” who determines electoral outcomes in Bihar? The answer, it seems, is not as straightforward as a simple yes or no.
A Legacy of Kingmaking
Nitish Kumar’s political career stands as one of the most impressive in recent history. Throughout his tenure, whichever party he has allied with has tasted victory in Bihar — from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2005 and 2019, to the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in 2015, and back to the BJP in 2020. This remarkable track record has earned him the title of Bihar’s ultimate “kingmaker,” a leader whose endorsement can shift the balance of electoral power and tip the scales in favor of his chosen political partner.
Kumar’s strength lies in his ability to unite and command a broad coalition of constituencies. His support base spans the Kurmi-Koeri communities (7%), Hindu Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, at 26%), Mahadalits, and women voters — a combination that has stayed loyal to him across various political shifts. This diverse coalition is not just a demographic advantage but is also tied to his relatively clean image and development-oriented governance, which resonate with a significant portion of Bihar’s electorate.
Development Agenda: Nitish Kumar’s Welfare-Focused Governance
Nitish Kumar’s governance has been characterized by a strong focus on welfare, particularly aimed at empowering women and marginalized communities. His flagship initiatives — like the Jeevika Didi program, cycle distribution for schoolgirls, and the contentious prohibition policy — have become key components of his political legacy.
One of his most significant achievements was introducing a 20% reservation for Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) in local bodies and pushing for 50% representation of women in panchayats. These moves greatly expanded political participation among historically underrepresented groups.
In what is widely regarded as his final political term, Nitish has made a concerted effort to expand his welfare schemes. He has rolled out several programs targeting critical voter groups, including women, youth, senior citizens, farmers, and laborers. Some of the major initiatives include increasing pensions for senior citizens and widows, raising salaries for Anganwadi workers and safai karmacharis, providing Rs. 5,000 to 16 lakh laborers, and offering seed capital of Rs. 10,000 to 1.21 crore women to start businesses. He has also introduced an unemployment allowance of Rs. 1,000 for youth.
This surge in welfare measures seems to be part of Nitish’s bid to solidify his legacy and secure one final electoral victory, thereby cementing his place in Bihar’s political history.
The Declining Graph: A Shift in Political Fortunes
Despite these efforts, Nitish Kumar’s political fortunes have experienced a noticeable decline. His approval ratings as the preferred Chief Minister have dropped sharply, from 37% in 2020 to between 16% and 25% in recent surveys (C-Voter, VoteVibe). His party’s performance has mirrored this downturn, with seats falling from a dominant 115 in 2010 to just 43 in 2020, while his vote share has decreased from 22.6% to 15.7% over the same period. This downward trajectory raises questions about his continued dominance as the “X-factor” in Bihar’s politics.
Nitish Kumar: Still the ‘X-Factor’ in Bihar Politics — But For How Long?
As Bihar gears up for elections, one question dominates the political conversation: Is Nitish Kumar still the “X-factor” capable of determining the state’s electoral outcome? The answer is far from simple, as his political journey reflects both his enduring influence and the challenges that threaten his legacy.
A Kingmaker’s Legacy
Nitish Kumar has established himself as a formidable political figure, known for his ability to steer parties to victory. His alliances with various parties over the years — including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2005 and 2019, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in 2015, and back to the BJP in 2020 — have earned him the title of Bihar’s ultimate kingmaker. He has played the role of the political “king” for nearly two decades, with his backing being crucial for any coalition seeking power in Bihar.
His political base is built on a strong coalition of Kurmi-Koeri communities (7%), Hindu Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, at 26%), Mahadalits, and women voters. These groups have remained loyal to him through various political shifts, drawn by his reputation for good governance and development-oriented policies.
A Focus on Development and Welfare
Nitish Kumar’s political agenda has largely centered on welfare and inclusivity. His flagship programs, like Jeevika Didi (a rural women’s empowerment initiative), schoolgirls’ cycle distribution, and the controversial prohibition policy, have earned him the trust of voters from marginalized communities. He also introduced a 20% reservation for EBCs in local bodies and ensured 50% representation of women in panchayats, which empowered previously underrepresented groups.
In his final political phase, Nitish has rolled out several new schemes aimed at strengthening his appeal. His welfare packages include pension increases for senior citizens and widows, salary hikes for Anganwadi workers and safai karmacharis, and grants for women and laborers to start businesses. These initiatives are designed not only to cement his legacy but also to deliver one last electoral victory, securing his place in Bihar’s political history.
The Decline of Nitish Kumar’s Political Fortunes
However, Nitish Kumar’s political fortunes have seen a steady decline. His approval ratings as Bihar’s Chief Minister have dropped significantly — from 37% in 2020 to between 16% and 25% in more recent surveys. His party’s performance has mirrored this decline, with the Janata Dal (United) losing seats from 115 in 2010 to just 43 in 2020. His vote share has similarly fallen from 22.6% to 15.7% during this period.
This drop can be attributed to what analysts refer to as “natural fatigue” — the inevitable weariness that sets in when a leader has been in power for too long. Additionally, at 74 years old, and with rumored health issues, his political viability is increasingly questioned. His frequent shifts between alliances have also raised doubts about his political principles. Nitish has moved from the NDA to the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) twice and back again, leading many to question his political integrity and commitment to ideological stances.
The Indispensability Factor: Why the NDA Still Needs Nitish
Despite his declining fortunes, Nitish Kumar remains indispensable to the BJP’s strategy in Bihar. The BJP lacks an alternative leader who can command the same loyalty from key vote banks, particularly the EBCs. Without Nitish at the helm, the BJP risks losing the crucial EBC vote, which could make a decisive difference in a tightly contested election.
Some political analysts argue that Nitish’s importance has been underestimated. They point to the 2020 JD(U) decline as being largely due to Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which split votes and weakened the NDA’s overall performance. Without the LJP’s interference, they contend, JD(U) might have secured closer to 70 seats. Furthermore, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, JD(U) performed better than the BJP in terms of strike rate, winning 12 out of 16 seats, compared to the BJP’s 12 out of 17.
Young Leaders and Emerging Challenges
Nitish Kumar’s dominance is increasingly being challenged by young leaders like Tejashwi Yadav, who are gaining traction with younger voters. However, Nitish’s advantage lies in his caste-based coalitions and his extensive administrative experience. These factors give him a level of political leverage that younger challengers, despite their energy, have yet to match.
That said, Nitish’s inability to address key issues like industrialization and mass job creation remains his biggest vulnerability. The persistent outmigration of Bihar’s youth in search of work is seen as a major failure of his governance. This is reflected in his declining popularity among young voters, though he still enjoys strong backing from older demographics and senior citizens.
The Risks Ahead
For the JD(U) to improve upon its 2020 performance, it will need to ensure better coordination of vote transfers within the NDA. In 2020, while 75% of JD(U) supporters backed BJP candidates, only 55% of BJP supporters reciprocated. Additionally, 20% of BJP voters supported the LJP. This year, with potential competition from Jan Suraj and shifting alliances, the trust between JD(U) and BJP has been strained, making the outcome even more uncertain.
The Final Verdict: Can Nitish Kumar Still Deliver for Bihar?
Nitish Kumar’s strategy for the upcoming election is clear: leverage his welfare schemes, capitalize on the opposition’s focus on issues like SIR and “vote chori,” and focus on unemployment and corruption — key issues that resonate with the electorate. Political analysts believe that for the NDA to secure a victory, Nitish must lead the JD(U) to at least 50 seats.
Poll strategist Prashant Kishor has predicted a steep decline for Nitish, forecasting just 25 seats for him. However, the math of the election suggests that Nitish’s performance is crucial to the NDA’s success. With only around 143 seats in contention, the NDA’s path to victory becomes almost impossible without his support.
In conclusion, while Nitish Kumar’s political brand may have lost some of its shine, he remains an important factor in Bihar’s electoral landscape. His coalition-building skills, relatively clean image, and deep-rooted support among key voter groups still make him a formidable player. Along with women voters and the unpredictable influence of Prashant Kishor, Nitish Kumar remains one of the three key figures whose actions will decide the state’s election results.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. Previously, he worked in corporate banking and investments.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author’s personal opinions.
